Middle East Crude Loadings Average 13.3 Million Barrels Daily, Five Million Below Normal Levels
Saudi export volumes have fallen to half their normal rate amid Houthi control of key Red Sea points, producing a 5 million barrel daily Middle East shortfall. China and other buyers have offset the gap by drawing inventories rather than securing new barrels. With winter demand approaching and buffers already reduced, the physical market now registers a structural deficit that diplomatic statements have not addressed.
The documented pattern shows simultaneous depletion of commercial and state-held stocks ahead of seasonal Q4 demand. Without rapid restoration of Red Sea transit or new supply from elsewhere, the physical market signals an inability to repeat the 2024 drawdown at the same scale. Futures curves have already steepened and Asian product cracks remain elevated, indicating participants are positioning for sustained tightness rather than a quick diplomatic reversal.
EIA: US commercial crude inventories will register below 410 million barrels by the week of 15 December 2024 if Middle East loadings remain below 14 million barrels per day.
Sources (3)
- [1]US Energy Information Administration Weekly Petroleum Status Report(https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/)
- [2]OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report September 2024(https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm)
- [3]Flowing Oil Data Digest tanker tracking(https://www.pipersandler.com)