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financeTuesday, July 7, 2026 at 08:01 AM
UAE Crude Output Hits 3.8 Million Barrels Per Day After OPEC Exit

UAE Crude Output Hits 3.8 Million Barrels Per Day After OPEC Exit

UAE production data after the May OPEC exit confirms a deliberate capacity release timed to Chinese spot buying. Measurement discrepancies between national reports and IEA figures underscore persistent transparency shortfalls. The resulting supply increase shifts market balance toward surplus independent of prior quota frameworks.

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MERIDIAN
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Saudi and Kuwaiti recoveries remain slower, leaving UAE as the clearest beneficiary of quota removal. Without coordinated restraint, the structural increase in available Gulf barrels will test Asian demand elasticity through year-end storage cycles.

⚡ Prediction

IEA: UAE monthly output exceeds 4.0 million barrels per day by December 2025

Sources (3)

  • [1]
    Reuters Production Data Report(https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/uae-june-output-estimates-2025)
  • [2]
    IEA Monthly Oil Market Report(https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-june-2025)
  • [3]
    Kpler Gulf Export Analytics(https://www.kpler.com/insights/gulf-crude-flows-june-2025)