Russian Refining Throughput Drops to 4 Million Barrels Per Day After Ukrainian Drone Strikes, Lifting US Diesel Crack Spreads Above $100 per Barrel
Ukrainian strikes have achieved throughput reductions that earlier Western sanctions did not. The resulting diesel shortage elevates crack spreads and forces export restrictions that further tighten global product balances. Primary records show throughput data and ban announcements as the measurable outcomes rather than stated policy rationales.
Russia maintains nameplate refining capacity of 6.7 mmbpd. Sustained strikes since August 2024 lowered gasoline output from 0.95 mmbpd to 0.65 mmbpd and diesel from 1.7 mmbpd to 1 mmbpd. Export bans followed to protect domestic supply. Jefferies analyst Lloyd Byrne recorded that gasoline exports are unlikely to resume before 2027 while diesel volumes remain constrained even if the October ban lifts.
IEA: Russian diesel exports stay below 1.2 mmbpd through December 2026
Sources (2)
- [1]Primary Source(https://minenergo.gov.ru/news/2026/08/refining-throughput-aug)
- [2]Supporting Source(https://www.jefferies.com/insights/russia-refining-update-2026)