Rising Concealed Carry and Record-Low Violent Crime: Correlation or Coincidence in 2025 Data

Preliminary FBI data released in May 2026 shows violent crime fell an estimated 9.3% nationwide from 2024 to 2025, with murder and non-negligent manslaughter down 18.1%. This aligns with estimates from the Council on Criminal Justice projecting a national homicide rate potentially reaching a historic low of around 4.0 per 100,000 residents—the lowest since at least 1900.

Parallel to these declines, the number of states with constitutional (permitless) carry laws reached 29 by mid-2026, covering a substantial portion of the U.S. population after expansions since 2021. Surveys commissioned by the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), led by John Lott, indicate rising rates of concealed carry among likely voters, with nearly 30% reporting they carry at least occasionally—a 5.5 percentage point increase from late 2024.

Lott's longstanding research, including the 'More Guns, Less Crime' hypothesis, posits that expanded right-to-carry laws deter violent crime by empowering law-abiding citizens. The CPRC survey also highlights disproportionate carry rates among Black and Hispanic respondents relative to their share of likely voters. Anecdotal accounts, such as those from individuals in states like Utah, describe increased personal confidence in public spaces under these laws.

Gun control organizations have not directly addressed the specific survey or 2025 crime figures in available reporting. While the temporal overlap between expanded carry and falling crime rates is documented, experts note multiple contributing factors to the crime drop, including post-pandemic normalization, policing strategies, and local violence intervention programs. Official statistics confirm the crime reductions but do not establish direct causation from firearm carry trends.