Sweden's 2026 Election: Non-European Background Voters Bolster Left Bloc in Narrow Victory

Sweden's September 13, 2026, general election delivered one of the tightest results in recent history, with the center-left opposition bloc securing 176 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag against 173 for the incumbent right-wing Tidö parties led by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. The Social Democrats emerged as the largest party with approximately 28% of the vote, positioning Magdalena Andersson to attempt government formation.

SVT's VALU exit poll revealed a stark demographic divide: 70% of voters with non-European backgrounds (defined as those who or whose parents grew up outside Europe) supported the left-wing bloc of Social Democrats, Left Party, Greens, and Centre Party. This group broke down as Social Democrats 38%, Left Party 21%, Greens 7%, and Centre 4%, compared to just 27% for the Tidö parties (Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats, Liberals). The non-European background cohort represents about 13% of eligible voters, or roughly 1 million people, up sharply from 3% in 2002.

This pattern aligns closely with 2022 results, where the same bloc received around 68% support from this demographic. SVT and independent analyses, including from political scientist Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson, note that S and V alone captured 59% of this vote. New citizenship grants during the prior term, disproportionately to those with non-European origins, are estimated by SVT to have contributed tens of thousands of additional votes favoring the opposition, though exact impact depends on turnout assumptions.

Pre-election commentary from Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Åkesson highlighted the left's reliance on immigrant voters amid native Swede shifts. The narrow margin—around 30,000 votes—underscores how demographic changes intersect with partisan outcomes, a dynamic also observed in heavily immigrant districts showing over 90% left support.