Fuel Squeeze Fuels Structural Inflation as 'Old Economy' Revenge Gains Traction

Former Goldman Sachs commodities chief Jeff Currie warned on CNBC's The Exchange on September 10, 2026, that surging refined product margins—particularly US diesel crack spreads reaching $110 per barrel—are signaling a deeper, more persistent physical commodity squeeze than markets have acknowledged. Brent crude rallied above $107 a barrel that week, with the move increasingly viewed as non-transient amid renewed Chinese demand and refinery restarts chasing high margins. Currie framed the dynamic as 'the old economy taking its revenge,' driven by years of underinvestment in supply infrastructure for hard assets, a theme he has echoed since summer warnings on scarcity. This aligns with broader market signals: equities and longer-dated oil futures reflecting sustained pressure, alongside elevated producer prices (US PPI up 5.4% YoY in August). HSBC's Paul Bloxham has separately highlighted a 'super-squeeze' in commodities, fueled by geopolitical disruptions in the Gulf (including shipping attacks near the Strait of Hormuz) and structural demand from AI/electrification, with upside risks to price forecasts. Oil benchmarks ended the week above $100 for the first time in months, amplifying logistics and inflation pass-through risks into food and consumer goods. Currie's analysis connects to wider macroeconomic shifts, including rising long-term yields and debates over Federal Reserve policy amid persistent energy-driven inflation. While geopolitical flare-ups contribute, demand recovery from Asia and refining incentives appear primary drivers, distinguishing this from purely transient shocks.