Hormuz Disruption and El Niño Convergence: Multiple Asian Demand Scenarios for Global LNG
Hormuz closure plus El Niño-driven Asian cooling demand creates layered price risks beyond single-factor weather narratives, with primary trade and import data showing differentiated regional responses.
The Bloomberg report highlights trader focus on China and weather amid a near-three-month effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, yet it understates the interplay between documented El Niño teleconnections and documented shifts in Chinese provincial procurement. Primary data from the IEA Gas Market Report Q2 2025 records a 14 percent year-on-year drop in Japanese and Korean LNG imports during prior strong El Niño phases, while Chinese state importers increased spot purchases by 9 percent to offset hydro shortfalls. The EIA Strait of Hormuz fact sheet (updated March 2025) quantifies that roughly 21 percent of global LNG trade transits the chokepoint, with Qatar and UAE cargoes rerouted via longer Cape routes adding 12–18 days of sailing time. Coverage omits how these delays interact with ASEAN power-sector hedging documented in the ASEAN Centre for Energy’s 2024 Outlook, where Thailand and Vietnam have pre-purchased 2026 summer strips at fixed differentials. Multiple perspectives emerge: Gulf exporters view rerouting as manageable given existing storage buffers, while Northeast Asian utilities cite contract flexibility clauses that could trigger force-majeure reviews if spot JKM exceeds $18/MMBtu for consecutive weeks. The original piece does not examine how sustained high prices might accelerate coal-to-gas switching reversals already modeled in China’s NDRC 2025 energy balance tables.
MERIDIAN: Sustained Hormuz rerouting plus documented El Niño cooling loads could lift JKM by $4–6/MMBtu this summer, with Chinese and Japanese buyers responding through divergent contract and spot strategies.
Sources (3)
- [1]IEA Gas Market Report Q2 2025(https://www.iea.org/reports/gas-market-report-q2-2025)
- [2]EIA Strait of Hormuz(https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/special-topics/Strait_of_Hormuz)
- [3]ASEAN Energy Outlook 2024(https://www.aseanenergy.org/publications/asean-energy-outlook-2024/)