Russia Deepens Dependence on China with Record Gas Discounts Amid Shifting Eurasian Energy Dynamics

Russian government budget documents reveal that China will pay an average of approximately $248 per thousand cubic meters (tcm) for pipeline gas via the Power of Siberia in 2026, compared to $562 for Gazprom's other foreign customers outside the former Soviet Union—a discount of up to 56 percent. This pricing, drawn from materials cited by The Moscow Times and reported across outlets including Eurasianet and OilPrice, underscores Moscow's weakened negotiating position following the loss of European markets due to sanctions and diversification efforts. The steep discount appears tied to Beijing's political support for Russia's actions in Ukraine, providing critical revenue for the Kremlin while highlighting Gazprom's surplus reserves in Siberia with no alternative buyers. Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center senior fellow Sergei Vakulenko notes that China pays Turkmenistan up to $60/tcm more than the Russian price, further illustrating Beijing's leverage despite longer transit distances. Negotiations for the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline remain stalled over pricing disputes, with Beijing reportedly seeking terms closer to domestic Chinese rates, according to South China Morning Post sources. Meanwhile, Chinese Premier Li Qiang's October 2026 Central Asia tour advanced infrastructure, copper, and digital initiatives in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, extending Beijing's regional influence through think tank partnerships like those between IREECAS and local counterparts. These developments reflect broader patterns of Russia trading energy concessions for diplomatic backing, while China consolidates economic footholds across Eurasia.