US-Iran Strikes Reduce Strait of Hormuz Tanker Transits, Lifting Brent 4 Percent

Oil prices rose after Iranian missile activity targeted vessels near the Strait and US forces struck Iranian naval assets in the Gulf of Oman. Brent crude settled at 84.20 dollars per barrel, up 3.80 dollars, while WTI followed at 80.15 dollars. Volume data from the Joint Oil Data Initiative showed a 19 percent drop in southbound crude loadings from Iranian terminals over the same period. The pattern repeats prior escalations in 2019 and 2021 where transit insurance premia doubled within a week without full closure. US Central Command records list three Iranian fast-boat intercepts and two missile launches against commercial traffic. Iranian state media reported reciprocal strikes on US-linked radar sites. Both sides documented the actions in official releases, confirming the sequence without claiming broader intent. The ledger shows Iran gains short-term deterrence signaling at the cost of resumed sanctions enforcement pressure; the United States gains leverage on proxy networks but absorbs immediate inflation transmission through refined product costs. Energy Information Administration weekly data indicate OECD inventories stand at 2.85 billion barrels, providing a 45-day buffer under current demand. Forward curves now price a 12 dollar risk premium through December. Sustained transit below 15 vessels per day would exhaust spare capacity held by Saudi Arabia and the UAE within four weeks, forcing coordinated release decisions at the next OPEC+ ministerial meeting.