The MarketWatch account notes oil prices recovering toward $100 following fresh US strikes in southern Iran, yet it understates the structural exposure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which EIA data show roughly 21 percent of global petroleum liquids transit. Primary Energy Information Administration assessments from 2023 document that even limited disruptions at this chokepoint generate immediate contango shifts and inventory drawdowns not captured by short-term diplomatic optimism. Official US Central Command releases on the latest operations describe targeted facilities without referencing broader maritime security guarantees, leaving open the question of whether any interim arrangement can neutralize the supply-risk premium now priced into futures curves. Iranian statements emphasize sovereign rights over adjacent waters while Gulf Cooperation Council communiqués stress collective defense of sea lanes; these parallel positions illustrate why incremental de-escalation talks have repeatedly failed to produce durable throughput assurances. Cross-referencing Department of Energy weekly inventory reports with historical Brent spikes after 2019 incidents reveals that markets consistently assign a $8–12 premium until physical flows demonstrate sustained stability, a threshold the current episode has not yet met.