Trump Policies Projected to Slash 390-540 GW of US Renewables, Drive Up Bills and Emissions

A new NRDC analysis released August 25, 2026, estimates that Trump administration actions—including IRA tax credit rollbacks via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), new tariffs, offshore wind lease cancellations, and permitting delays—could eliminate 390-540 GW of planned wind, solar, and storage capacity over the next decade. This represents over 40% of pre-administration projections for new power additions. The report projects only up to 9 GW of additional gas capacity materializing, citing turbine supply bottlenecks and renewables' cost edge; Global Energy Monitor corroborates 189 GW of US gas projects in development (nearly doubled in H1 2026), much tied to data centers, but notes widespread uncertainty with two-thirds lacking named turbine suppliers. Power costs are forecast to rise $5-15B annually on fossil fuels, with household electricity rates up 4.2-5.5% by 2035 (or as much as $230/year and 25% regionally in some analyses), alongside $700B in lost clean energy investment and half a million fewer jobs. Environmental fallout includes doubled power-sector CO2 emissions by 2035 and up to 69,000 additional premature deaths from increased pollution. Complementary reporting from Wood Mackenzie highlights $121B at risk from stalled permits on 92 GW of projects; E2 and EDF document 21-22 GW of clean capacity already cancelled or in limbo since early 2025, plus manufacturing investment drops. While a MIT study suggests 67-74% of IRA clean energy gains may persist, NRDC modeling and market data show renewables still dominating 2025 additions despite headwinds. The disconnect between surging AI-driven demand and constrained gas buildout underscores a potential reliability gap, with simpler-cycle plants filling niches at higher emissions. Connections to broader trends include state-level moratoriums, interconnection queues, and public opposition amplifying federal policy effects.