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scienceThursday, October 22, 2026 at 07:33 AM
GWB-Constrained Black Hole Mass Functions Fit Quasar Luminosity Data with Lower Eddington Ratios and No Super-Eddington Accretion

GWB-Constrained Black Hole Mass Functions Fit Quasar Luminosity Data with Lower Eddington Ratios and No Super-Eddington Accretion

GWB posteriors provide BHMFs that fit observed QLFs from z = 0.2–6.2 with lower Eddington ratios and no super-Eddington accretion, outperforming fiducial models at the bright end. The ERDF break point evolves and maximizes near z ≈ 2. This unifies gravitational-wave and quasar data sets while constraining black hole seeding and growth.

Future PTA data releases with extended baselines and additional pulsars will shrink BHMF posterior widths by roughly 30 percent, while next-generation quasar surveys such as LSST and Euclid will tighten the bright-end QLF slope. Joint electromagnetic-gravitational analyses can then test whether the redshift evolution of the ERDF break point remains peaked at z ∼ 2 or shifts with improved high-z constraints.

⚡ Prediction

Matt et al.: Next NANOGrav data release will narrow the GWB-inferred high-mass BHMF slope uncertainty below 0.15 within 18 months, producing a statistically significant (>3σ) improvement in QLF bright-end residuals versus fiducial models.

Sources (3)

  • [1]
    Primary Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.28680)
  • [2]
    Supporting Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.16217)
  • [3]
    Supporting Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.07131)