Bond market pricing around potential de-escalation in Iran-related tensions overlooks entrenched US fiscal dynamics documented in primary Treasury and Congressional Budget Office outlooks. Primary debt issuance data from the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcements reveal sustained net borrowing needs exceeding $1.5 trillion annually through 2027, driven by entitlement spending growth rather than transient energy shocks. This pattern aligns with pre-2022 yield curves where term premiums remained elevated amid widening deficits, independent of Middle East supply disruptions. Multiple perspectives emerge from Federal Reserve Board transcripts emphasizing that core PCE inflation components tied to housing and services have decoupled from commodity cycles, suggesting that any post-conflict oil price relief would transmit unevenly to long-duration assets. Coverage focusing solely on war-risk premia understates how CBO baseline projections of debt-to-GDP surpassing 120 percent by 2030 embed higher neutral rates, a factor absent from contemporaneous market commentary. Cross-referencing with IMF Article IV consultations on advanced economy fiscal space further indicates that investor underpricing of rollover risks persists across cycles, as evidenced in 2018-2019 flattening episodes where geopolitical calm failed to compress 10-year yields below 2 percent amid similar deficit trajectories.