Market pricing now treats roughly $100 per barrel as the central scenario for 2027, reflecting anticipated losses of several million barrels daily from the US-Iran confrontation. Primary data from the US Energy Information Administration's June 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook already flag upside risks to global balances once Strait of Hormuz throughput is modeled under sustained disruption. A parallel perspective emerges from OPEC's June 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report, which emphasizes spare-capacity drawdowns rather than outright volume shortfalls, underscoring how different accounting frameworks produce divergent price elasticities. Central banks face asymmetric choices: the European Central Bank may confront imported energy inflation that complicates its disinflation path, while the Federal Reserve could interpret the same shock as a supply-side impulse requiring less aggressive rate cuts. Long-term capital expenditure cycles in non-OPEC producers receive little attention in daily coverage yet determine whether the shock proves transitory or structural. Renewables deployment timelines in Asia similarly remain outside the immediate narrative, even though sustained high prices alter project economics in national energy plans.