Treasury report flags AI valuations matching dotcom peak as OpenAI floats 5% US equity stake

The leaked internal Treasury document, reported by NOTUS on 7 July 2026, models AI revenue concentration against NASDAQ composite data from 1999-2000 and identifies identical forward revenue multiples exceeding 40x for leading model providers. Parallel reporting in Reuters confirms administration officials received the analysis in Q2 2026 yet maintained public growth forecasts. The MIT Technology Review newsletter surfaces Altman's concurrent proposal for a government stake without referencing the valuation stress test.

Samsung's Q2 2026 earnings showed AI chip revenue driving 1,800% profit growth yet shares declined 4% on forward demand concerns, per company filings and Reuters market data. This pattern mirrors the document's warning on hardware demand masking software margin compression. No public reconciliation exists between the Treasury model's 35% probability of 40% sector correction and OpenAI's equity distribution narrative.

Operationally the 5% stake functions as a political instrument rather than a funded dividend mechanism, given OpenAI's current nonprofit-to-capped-profit structure and absence of liquid public shares. Macro linkage appears in the Treasury scenario where a 30% AI valuation reset would transmit through pension and 401(k) holdings exceeding $1.2 trillion in technology exposure. Regulators have not released stress-test parameters for AI-related securities.

Next steps include Treasury publication of the full model by September 2026 and potential congressional hearings on equity distribution mechanics before any legislative action.