Full-body MRI yields 0.025 QALY net benefit equal to 926 micromorts

Scott Alexander's analysis of 1000 asymptomatic individuals found 8 true beneficiaries gaining 4 QALYs each from early detection while 306 incurred 0.02-0.06 QALY losses from false positives, biopsies, and anxiety. After subtracting costs the aggregate benefit reached 25 QALYs. The entropicthoughts post converts this via the 27-QALY life-saved benchmark into 926 micromorts, placing the intervention on par with one year of smoking or two base jumps.

The conversion rests on base-rate effects: tests calibrated for symptomatic populations produce low positive predictive value in healthy cohorts. Data from the original model already embed these false-positive cascades; no additional empirical trials contradict the 0.025 QALY figure. Operational cost therefore hinges on whether 926 micromorts saved justifies scanner time and downstream procedures.

Deployment records show no large-scale asymptomatic MRI programs in the US or EU as of 2024. Any future rollout will require explicit trade-off disclosure matching the micromort framing. Threshold for measurable population impact is adoption above 10 percent of adults aged 50-70 within five years.