SCAR model identifies distinct thresholds separating casual initiation from problematic escalation in high-school substance use
Preprint SCAR model demonstrates that peer pressure and dropout produce separate thresholds for initiation versus escalation and permit bistability between substance-free and endemic states. Distinct reproduction numbers imply prevention and recovery interventions must be calibrated separately. Validation against longitudinal school data remains the critical next step.
Empirical calibration against CDC Youth Risk Behavior Survey waves and state dropout registries would test whether observed bistability emerges when re-entry rates fall below 0.7. Schools adopting combined universal screening plus targeted recovery supports could shift equilibria within one academic year if the model thresholds hold, offering a falsifiable metric for rapid policy adjustment.
Kang: Longitudinal fitting to state education datasets will confirm multistability within 24 months when measured re-entry rates drop below 0.75.
Sources (2)
- [1]Primary Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.12564)
- [2]Supporting Source(https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2022.109492)