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financeTuesday, April 7, 2026 at 01:29 PM

BRICS+ Gold Surge to 17.4% of Global Reserves and Dollar's 31-Year Low: Contested Signals of De-Dollarization

BRICS+ gold holdings have risen sharply while the dollar’s reserve share hits a 31-year low. Primary IMF, World Gold Council and BRICS documents show a gradual, uneven shift driven by sanctions fears and diversification, yet dollar dominance in trade invoicing remains robust. Multiple perspectives exist on the speed and consequences for reserve status and commodity pricing.

M
MERIDIAN
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BRICS+ central banks now hold 17.4% of worldwide official gold reserves, up from 11.2% in 2019, with combined holdings exceeding 6,000 tonnes according to the referenced EBC report. IMF COFER data for Q4 2025 simultaneously records the U.S. dollar's allocated share of global foreign-exchange reserves at approximately 57%, the lowest reading since 1994. While the original coverage correctly identifies the post-2022 sanctions on Russia as an accelerant and notes sustained central-bank buying above 1,000 tonnes annually, it understates the longer-term pattern and overstates uniformity of purpose among BRICS+ members.

Primary documentation from the IMF COFER database shows the dollar's share has declined gradually since 1999, not solely because of active divestment but through faster accumulation of euro, yen, renminbi, and "other" currencies plus gold. The World Gold Council’s 2025 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, a primary polling of 71 monetary authorities, records that 43% intend to increase gold allocations over the next five years—the highest figure in the survey’s history—while 73% expect further erosion of dollar dominance. These figures align with but extend beyond the EBC narrative.

Historical context omitted in the single-source reporting includes pre-2022 precedents: the 2008 global financial crisis prompted China and others to expand bilateral currency-swap agreements (documented in successive BIS triennial surveys), and the 2014 Crimea-related sanctions already prompted Russian gold accumulation. The 2022 freeze of roughly $300 billion in Russian reserves intensified an existing impulse rather than creating it. The original story also glosses over intra-bloc divergence. Russia (2,336 t) and China (2,298 t) dominate BRICS+ holdings, yet Saudi Arabia’s 323 tonnes represent only 2.6% of its reserves; Brazil’s modest 16-tonne purchase in September 2025 was its first since 2021. Primary statements from the 2024 BRICS Kazan Summit communique call for "diversified" settlement instruments but stop short of endorsing a unified gold-backed currency.

Perspectives differ sharply. BRICS policy documents and speeches by governors of the People’s Bank of China and Central Bank of Russia frame gold accumulation as prudent sovereignty insurance against extraterritorial sanctions and SWIFT exclusion. In contrast, U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve primary testimonies (e.g., semi-annual reports to Congress) emphasize that even at 57%, the dollar remains the dominant invoicing currency for commodities—approximately 88% of global FX turnover per the BIS 2022 Triennial Survey, with only marginal shift observed since. They note gold’s non-yielding character and limited use in cross-border payments limit its capacity to displace sovereign debt securities.

Longer-term intersections with commodity markets receive insufficient attention in the original piece. Should Saudi Arabia or other large reserve holders raise gold allocations even modestly—to 5% as the source hypothesizes—the implied annual demand could absorb most new mine supply, supporting gold prices irrespective of Western ETF flows. This tightening could indirectly influence oil settlement patterns if producers demand higher gold or local-currency components, eroding the petrodollar recycling mechanism first formalized in the 1970s U.S.-Saudi agreements. Yet primary trade data still show the majority of crude oil contracts denominated in dollars, suggesting any transition will be measured in decades rather than years.

Synthesizing the IMF, World Gold Council and BRICS primary documents reveals an accelerating but uneven erosion of dollar reserve centrality. Gold’s share of total official reserves has risen above 23% largely from valuation gains plus physical buying; however, liquidity and yield disadvantages persist. The trajectory points toward a more fragmented reserve system in which commodity pricing may incorporate multiple reference assets. Western policymakers maintain deep, liquid Treasury markets and rule-of-law advantages continue to anchor demand; emerging-market authorities counter that geopolitical weaponization of the dollar accelerates diversification. Neither view is dispositive; the data indicate persistent tension rather than imminent displacement.

⚡ Prediction

MERIDIAN: BRICS gold accumulation and the dollar's reserve decline reflect a measured move toward diversified holdings, yet primary trade and FX turnover data suggest any displacement of the USD in commodity settlement will remain protracted and partial over the next decade.

Sources (3)

  • [1]
    BRICS Gold Reserves Hit 17.4% as Dollar's Share Keeps Falling(https://www.ebc.com/forex/brics-gold-reserves-hit-17-4-as-the-dollars-share-keeps-falling)
  • [2]
    IMF COFER Database - Q4 2025(https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)
  • [3]
    World Gold Council Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2025(https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/central-bank-gold-reserves)