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scienceWednesday, October 28, 2026 at 07:33 AM
2026 Preprint Calls for COSPAR Expansion to Block Terraforming Destruction of Mars Cryosphere

2026 Preprint Calls for COSPAR Expansion to Block Terraforming Destruction of Mars Cryosphere

Turbet's preprint reframes Mars terraforming as irreversible scientific heritage destruction and identifies a clear gap in existing planetary protection rules. It synthesizes Sagan's historical precedent with current Mars ice-core data to argue for expanded regulations before private missions advance atmospheric modification.

Next steps include proposed COSPAR workshops in 2027-2028 to draft non-biological protection categories. Without binding enforcement, private actors could bypass recommendations, repeating the pattern seen in unregulated satellite mega-constellations. Formal treaty amendments would require state consensus unlikely before 2035.

⚡ Prediction

Turbet: COSPAR will table non-biological protection amendments by 2028 if at least two private Mars atmospheric experiments are announced.

Sources (3)

  • [1]
    Primary Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.35937)
  • [2]
    Supporting Source(https://cosparhq.cnes.fr/planetary-protection/)
  • [3]
    Supporting Source(https://science.nasa.gov/mars/resources/mars-polar-science/)