Elevated US Gasoline Prices Persist Amid Refining Tightness and Middle East Supply Shocks

US national average gasoline prices hovered above $4 per gallon for approximately two and a half months in spring 2026 before easing to around $3.85 by early July, reflecting supply constraints that directly raise everyday driving and heating costs for millions within months. Goldman Sachs commodity strategist Daan Struyven identified three key forces in a recent note: tight global refining utilization near historical highs, combined refinery outages in Russia and the Middle East running 4.6 million barrels per day above seasonal norms due to the Iran conflict and related disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, and asymmetric passthrough where retailers pass on energy cost increases more readily than decreases. Corroborating reports from Reuters highlight unplanned US refinery outages of about 150,000 barrels per day in April amid the conflict, while AAA data shows prices peaking at $4.56 in May before partial relief. Academic analyses, including studies in the RAND Journal of Economics, confirm asymmetric price responses in gasoline markets. These dynamics connect to broader inventory draws and potential EV demand acceleration noted by Goldman analysts, though refining bottlenecks continue to support elevated pump prices into summer.