System Dynamics Model Shows AstroForge PGM Mining Delays Price Collapse Until Full Supply Shift
Nachtrieb's model demonstrates that AstroForge-driven asteroid PGM mining produces a phased market transition rather than immediate collapse, with prices falling only after complete off-world supply dominance. The work highlights interim economic rents and downstream application growth missed by launch-focused reporting. Evidence strength rests on a single non-validated dynamics simulation pending empirical mission data.
Limitations include reliance on unverified AstroForge cost assumptions and exclusion of regulatory or geopolitical constraints on asteroid claims. Stronger evidence would require integrated techno-economic data from a successful demonstration mission coupled with updated demand curves from clean-energy scenarios. The framework correctly flags that fortunes accrue during the lag, not after the collapse.
Nachtrieb: PGM prices remain above $800/oz for at least five years after first economic AstroForge delivery if terrestrial mines close at projected rates.
Sources (2)
- [1]Primary Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.06806)
- [2]Supporting Source(https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2024/mcs2024-platinum.pdf)