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scienceMonday, October 12, 2026 at 06:28 PM
Preprint finds <1% chance all reported Mega-Earths orbit active stars, attributes detections to activity-induced RV errors

Preprint finds <1% chance all reported Mega-Earths orbit active stars, attributes detections to activity-induced RV errors

The preprint demonstrates that reported Mega-Earths coincide exclusively with active stellar hosts at <1% probability, implying RV mass measurements are contaminated by activity rather than revealing a new planet class. It challenges Gaussian Process reliability for active-star RVs and reinforces the theoretical 10 Earth-mass rocky limit. Confirmation awaits observations of inactive hosts.

The analysis examined all published planets above the ~10 Earth-mass rocky threshold and cross-matched their host-star activity indices. Every candidate fell around active stars; no counter-examples appeared in the inactive-star sample. Formation models predict runaway gas accretion above this mass, so the absence of Mega-Earths around quiet stars supports the artifact interpretation rather than exotic formation pathways. Gaussian Process regression, commonly used to separate stellar signals from planetary orbits, is questioned because it may absorb or mimic low-amplitude Keplerian signals when activity is strong. The paper notes no astrophysical reason for true Mega-Earths to form preferentially around active hosts, undermining claims that these objects are real. Re-analysis of existing RV datasets with activity indicators or independent methods such as transit-timing variations will be required. Future instruments targeting inactive stars at high precision can test whether any genuine >10 Earth-mass rocky planets exist. If none appear, the upper mass limit for rocky worlds remains intact.

⚡ Prediction

Brinkman et al.: No confirmed rocky planet >10 Mearth will be validated around a star with log R'HK <-5.0 within the next three years of TESS or PLATO follow-up.

Sources (3)

  • [1]
    Primary Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.12600)
  • [2]
    Supporting Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.13392)
  • [3]
    Supporting Source(https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2023AJ....165...38R)