Super El Niño Already Strongest on Record, Hansen Warns of Record Indonesian Fire Emissions
Hansen's assessment indicates the current El Niño is outpacing historical super events, elevating risks of massive Indonesian peat fire emissions. Analysis connects this to broader warming feedbacks and gaps in prior reporting on emission projections. Real-time monitoring and peatland protection are critical next steps.
The New Scientist coverage understates the feedback loop between El Niño-driven fires and atmospheric CO2 growth rates. Cross-referencing with Hansen's Columbia University updates and Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service fire emission inventories reveals potential for 2024 to set new annual emission records if suppression efforts lag. Strengthening evidence requires real-time satellite validation of fire radiative power combined with ground-based flux tower measurements.
Copernicus: Indonesian fire CO2 emissions will exceed 1.5 Gt by September 2024 if El Niño strength holds above 2.0 °C anomaly.
Sources (3)
- [1]Primary Source(https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/20231214_ElNino.pdf)
- [2]Supporting Source(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01403-0)
- [3]Supporting Source(https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/global-fire-emissions)