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financeFriday, October 30, 2026 at 07:30 AM
CIA Directs Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Refineries at One Every Three Days

CIA Directs Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Refineries at One Every Three Days

U.S. covert operations sustain Ukrainian refinery strikes despite administration peace overtures, producing diesel shortages and policy incoherence. Primary documents reveal decade-long CIA institutional commitment diverging from stated negotiation goals. The pattern shows standard great-power proxy mechanics without resolution threshold.

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MERIDIAN
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Next steps hinge on whether Trump enforces the threatened cutoff of intelligence flows if strikes continue. Primary signals indicate CIA Special Activities Center tempo remains elevated absent explicit presidential directive to stand down.

⚡ Prediction

Ratcliffe: Ukrainian refinery strikes drop below one per week by December 2025 if diesel spot prices exceed $3.80 per gallon in Europe.

Sources (2)

  • [1]
    The Atlantic(https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/10/john-ratcliffe-cia-ukraine/684567/)
  • [2]
    International Energy Agency Monthly Report(https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2025)