Asian Cocoa Grindings Rise 29% in Q3 as European Processing Posts First Annual Gain Since 2024

Third-quarter data from the Cocoa Association of Asia and European Cocoa Association showed processing volumes exceeding analyst forecasts. Lower bean prices after the 2024 spike to $12,000 per ton improved processor margins and reversed some demand destruction. New York futures settled at $5,762 per ton, still more than 50% below the prior peak but 157% above the annual low.

West African producers face ongoing supply constraints from weather and policy choices in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the dominant exporters. Governments there balance export revenue against domestic processing ambitions and farmer support programs. The rebound in grindings reflects corporate inventory restocking rather than broad consumption recovery, as chocolate makers test volume-growth strategies ahead of seasonal demand.

Hershey and peers now face a direct test during the October-Halloween window. Deutsche Bank noted September consumption trends lagged expectations, making fourth-quarter volume and share data decisive for 2027 forecasts. Sustained processing gains will require either further price relief or measurable shifts in consumer purchasing behavior.

Primary records from the two cocoa associations and company statements confirm the volume increases but do not project forward demand. Any continuation hinges on whether lower input costs translate into stable retail pricing and restored offtake.