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scienceSunday, November 8, 2026 at 01:51 PM
Asteroid Shape Drives Up to Fivefold Variation in Nuclear X-ray Deflection Velocity, Sandia Icarus Study Finds

Asteroid Shape Drives Up to Fivefold Variation in Nuclear X-ray Deflection Velocity, Sandia Icarus Study Finds

Nuclear asteroid deflection efficacy depends critically on target shape and aim point; Sandia’s new algorithm shows velocity changes varying by factors of five and spin changes by factors of 17. The work replaces spherical approximations with realistic geometries and highlights the necessity of detailed reconnaissance before any nuclear mission design.

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Next steps include coupling the same code to radar-derived shape models of 101955 Bennu and 99942 Apophis, then running Monte Carlo ensembles over approach geometries expected for a 2030s intercept mission. Validation against additional Z-machine shots on fractured targets will determine whether the 17-fold spin variation persists at higher fidelity.

Sources (3)

  • [1]
    Primary Source(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0019103524003121)
  • [2]
    Supporting Source(https://www.nasa.gov/feature/dart-impact-outcome)
  • [3]
    Supporting Source(https://www.sandia.gov/news/publications/lab_accomplishments/2025/)