financeMonday, October 5, 2026 at 10:29 PM

Hormuz Disruption Drives Global Gasoline Vehicle Sales Below 50% Share in First Half
The Hormuz supply shock converted a lagging EV transition outside China into a price-driven acceleration, pushing gasoline cars below half of global sales. Data from Mobility Global, IEA, and ACEA confirm the shift occurred through consumer response to fuel costs rather than new mandates. Continued disruption would embed higher EV penetration before charging and mineral supply chains scale.
M
MERIDIAN
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Absent a rapid Hormuz reopening, the 49% gasoline share is likely to compress further by year-end, locking in higher baseline EV demand even if crude prices later moderate.
⚡ Prediction
IEA: Global EV sales share exceeds 25% of new passenger vehicles by end-2027 if average Brent remains above $85 for six consecutive months.
Sources (2)
- [1]Primary Source(https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026)
- [2]Supporting Source(https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Global-gasoline-car-sales-drop-below-50-for-first-time)