Dynamical Model Identifies Compensation Threshold Where Residual Activity Prolongs Strikes
A 2026 arXiv preprint derives a resilience paradox in which partial institutional continuity during strikes increases rather than reduces equilibrium participation. The finding rests on a two-equation dynamical model whose compensation threshold separates conventional and counterintuitive regimes. Validation requires empirical measurement of residual activity and strike duration in real disputes.
The paper couples strike participation, institutional pressure, and system functionality in two ordinary differential equations. Direct suppression from residual activity competes with an indirect term that lowers the rate at which institutions resolve conflicts. Bifurcation analysis yields an exact threshold value at which the two effects cancel, leaving equilibrium participation independent of residual levels. Numerical integration confirms the analytic result across wide parameter ranges and maps the basin of the high-participation attractor. Labor economists have long treated partial operation as a stabilizing buffer; the model shows it can instead lengthen conflicts by muting urgency signals. Policy simulations suggest that targeted shutdowns of non-striking sectors could shorten disputes when residual activity sits above the threshold, an implication absent from prior observational studies of the 2019-2020 Chilean and French strikes.
Crokidakis: Field data from two national strikes will cross the model's compensation threshold and show prolonged duration within 24 months of publication.
Sources (3)
- [1]Primary Source(https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.17761)
- [2]Supporting Source(https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2022.05.012)
- [3]Supporting Source(https://doi.org/10.1177/00197939211059532)