Iranian Crude Stockpile at Sea Reaches 58-68 Million Barrels Under Active US Sanctions Waiver

Data from Kpler and Vortexa document the accumulation of sanctioned Iranian barrels held offshore after major Asian buyers reduced offtake. The 60-day waiver window granted by Washington has not produced new long-term contracts, leaving vessels stationary rather than discharging at Chinese or Indian refineries. This pattern aligns with prior sanction cycles where floating storage preceded measurable export declines once waivers lapsed.

The buildup signals enforcement gaps rather than policy reversal. Primary records from US Treasury designations and shipping manifests show repeated use of ship-to-ship transfers and flag changes that have sustained limited flows despite the waiver's restrictions. Without new primary buyers documented in trade data, the idle volume functions as deferred supply that can re-enter markets once enforcement pressure eases or alternative routes open.

Absent fresh waivers or verified destination shifts, the stored crude creates downside risk for future price stability. Historical precedent from 2019-2020 shows similar at-sea hoards releasing into markets within 90 days of sanction adjustments, often coinciding with OPEC+ quota negotiations. Current volumes exceed those earlier episodes by roughly 30 percent.