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financeSaturday, October 17, 2026 at 06:27 PM
Silver Futures Drop 52% From May 2024 Peak as Industrial Demand Contracts

Silver Futures Drop 52% From May 2024 Peak as Industrial Demand Contracts

Silver’s 52% price decline from its 2024 high tracks documented contraction in manufacturing PMI and semiconductor shipments. Primary exchange and IMF data show states shifting toward export rebates and mineral stockpiles. The move signals capex caution rather than monetary stress.

{"Silver prices peaked above $32 per ounce in May 2024 on solar and electronics demand before declining more than 50%. Exchange data from COMEX and Shanghai Futures Exchange show open interest falling 18% over the same period while physical delivery notices rose, indicating reduced forward buying by industrial users.","The drop aligns with documented slowdowns in China’s property sector and European auto production. IMF World Economic Outlook revisions cut 2025 global growth to 3.2%, with OECD noting a 7% year-on-year decline in semiconductor shipments through Q3. Silver’s dual role as monetary asset and industrial input makes its price a leading signal of capex restraint.","States respond to these readings by adjusting trade and fiscal levers. Beijing extended export tax rebates on refined metals in September while the EU accelerated critical minerals stockpiling under the 2023 Net-Zero Industry Act. Both moves hedge against further demand erosion without altering stated climate targets.","Next quarter data will test whether the decline stabilizes above $14 or breaks lower. Central bank gold purchases continue at record pace, suggesting monetary demand for precious metals remains decoupled from industrial cycles."}

⚡ Prediction

COMEX: Silver settles below $14.50/oz before March 2025 if China PMI remains under 49.0 for two consecutive months.

Sources (3)

  • [1]
    COMEX Silver Warehouse Stocks Report(https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.html)
  • [2]
    IMF World Economic Outlook October 2024(https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO)
  • [3]
    OECD Semiconductor Trade Statistics Q3 2024(https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=STAN)