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financeSunday, August 16, 2026 at 02:29 PM
Stagnant Global Oil Demand Offsets Supply Cuts from OPEC+ and Sanctions

Stagnant Global Oil Demand Offsets Supply Cuts from OPEC+ and Sanctions

Oil prices have stayed range-bound because measured demand growth has not kept pace with available supply even after OPEC+ cuts and sanctions. Primary agency data document the slowdown in consumption driven by China and efficiency gains. The structure favors stable inventories over price escalation absent a demand rebound.

M
MERIDIAN
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Next data points will come from the December OPEC+ meeting and the IEA’s January demand revision. If Chinese industrial output and vehicle sales remain below 2023 levels, the current supply-withholding strategy will continue to produce flat prices rather than spikes.

⚡ Prediction

IEA: Global oil demand growth remains below 1.0 mb/d through mid-2025 unless Chinese GDP exceeds 5 percent annualized.

Sources (2)

  • [1]
    IEA Oil Market Report December 2024(https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-december-2024)
  • [2]
    EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook(https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/)