Elabe Poll Shows Le Pen at 34-35.5% First Round, Ahead in All 2027 Runoffs

The poll records Le Pen clearing the fragmented field by wide margins, with Édouard Philippe at 17%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 14-14.5%, and Raphaël Glucksmann between 11.5-14%. In head-to-heads she leads Philippe 52.5-47.5, Attal or Glucksmann 57-43, and Mélenchon 69.5-30.5. These figures come after her July 7 appeal court ruling upheld an embezzlement conviction yet shortened the office-holding ban, leaving her on the ballot pending Cour de Cassation review. French 10-year yields sit near 4.1% with an 80-basis-point spread over Bunds, reflecting a hung National Assembly, repeated budget shortfalls near 5% of GDP, and IMF projections of debt above 120% by 2027. The same data show the cross-party second-round barrier that produced 82-18 and 58-42 margins against Le Pen in prior cycles has narrowed to five points against the strongest centrist alternative. Le Pen's platform at the August 27 MEDEF gathering outlined €125 billion in savings paired with targeted early retirement costing €9 billion. Banks continue to limit campaign financing while the party's designated substitute, Jordan Bardella, remains available if sentencing restricts her mobility. The October 2027 finance bill will test whether the current parliamentary arithmetic can produce passage without extraordinary procedures. Markets price continued fragmentation rather than outright National Rally control. Any Cour de Cassation decision before April will determine whether the electronic tag becomes the dominant runoff frame or is lifted by sentence adjustment.