Fresh U.S.-Iran exchanges have lifted WTI above $90, yet the price action primarily reflects forward curves embedding repeated Hormuz transit frictions rather than any single strike. EIA data show roughly 21 percent of global petroleum liquids transiting the strait daily; historical logs from 2019 tanker incidents and 2023 Houthi-linked attacks demonstrate how even partial closures shift arbitrage flows toward longer Cape routes, adding 15-20 days of delay. Iranian statements emphasize sovereign rights over adjacent waters while U.S. Central Command releases document escort operations; both narratives converge on the same physical bottleneck without resolving it. Federal Reserve transcripts from 2022 highlight energy pass-through coefficients into core PCE, indicating that sustained $85-plus crude can offset disinflation progress by 0.3-0.5 percentage points over two quarters. Secondary coverage treating the episode as an isolated ceasefire setback therefore understates cumulative effects on inflation-targeting frameworks and spare-capacity drawdowns tracked in OPEC monthly reports.