Brent Crude Stabilizes Near $85 as Red Sea Rerouting Offsets OPEC+ Supply Restraint

Houthi missile and drone strikes on commercial vessels began in November 2023 after the Israel-Hamas escalation. Shipping data from Clarksons Research show average transit time from Ras Tanura to Rotterdam rising from 18 to 33 days. The resulting insurance surcharge of $1.2 million per voyage has been absorbed by charterers rather than passed fully into delivered crude prices.

Saudi Arabia and Russia extended voluntary cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day through March 2025 in the December 2024 OPEC+ meeting. US Energy Information Administration weekly data record a 2.1 million barrel build in OECD inventories during January 2025, indicating that redirected supply from the Gulf has not yet tightened physical balances. Asian buyers have increased spot purchases from West Africa and the US Gulf Coast.

The price floor reflects a two-sided ledger. Producers gain fiscal revenue at $80-plus but lose market share to non-OPEC supply growing at 1.4 million barrels per day. Consumers face higher freight costs yet avoid the demand destruction that accompanied the 2022 spike above $120. Central bank rate paths and Chinese stimulus announcements now set the upper bound more than any single Gulf event.

Forward curves priced on NYMEX show December 2025 contracts at $78, signaling that traders expect either de-escalation or further non-OPEC output to cap any sustained move above $95.