US Long-Term Unemployment Share Rises to 27% in August 2026 Amid 'Low-Hire, Low-Fire' Labor Market

Despite strong August 2026 job growth of 162,000 nonfarm payrolls—nearly triple expectations—the share of long-term unemployed (27 weeks or more) climbed to 27.0% of total unemployed, or about 1.93 million people, up from 25.5% (1.77 million) in July, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The overall unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, with labor force participation ticking up to 61.6%. Richmond Fed research attributes the trend to a persistent 'low-hire, low-fire' environment where job-finding rates for the long-term jobless remain subdued, particularly for those unemployed over a year, even as layoffs stay near historic lows and vacancies hover around 7 million. This dynamic, building since early 2023, highlights structural mismatches including skills gaps in trades and manufacturing, alongside declining reemployment prospects that differ from typical late-expansion patterns. Median unemployment duration rose to 11.4 weeks. While headline metrics suggest stability, the data point to deepening challenges for millions sidelined from the workforce.