US Existing Home Sales Rise 1.5% in September but Remain Below 4 Million SAAR as Mortgage Rates Reach 7.49%

National Association of Realtors data show September sales rose modestly after a downward August revision to -3.2% month-over-month. The gain occurred before the additional half-point rate increase since early September. Supply expanded 4.6% year-over-year to 4.8 months at current pace, the highest level in over a decade. Regional gains were concentrated in the South and West while the Northeast recorded a decline.

The lock-in effect has reasserted itself after earlier progress. Homeowners with low-rate mortgages face a $19,000 purchasing-power reduction on a $2,000 monthly budget following the rate reset. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated that further rate increases will produce measurably lower closing activity in the fourth quarter, with contract delays already visible.

This dynamic widens the gap between trapped sellers and price-sensitive buyers without resolving underlying inventory shortages. Federal Reserve rate policy continues to transmit directly into household mobility constraints, reinforcing regional price divergence rather than broad market clearing.

Forward indicators point to sustained pressure on transaction volumes through year-end absent a documented reversal in effective mortgage rates or a measurable increase in distressed listings.