Trump Orders DOJ Probe Into Oil Company Margins After Crude Falls Post-US-Iran Deal

Trump cited the gap between crude declines and the national average regular gasoline price of $3.93 per gallon reported by AAA on June 23. Crude futures reached $72.29 WTI amid resumed Hormuz traffic, yet pump prices remain above the $2.98 level recorded February 28 before U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. The two-week refining lag and elevated crack spreads account for most of the differential rather than collusion.

The June 18 U.S.-Iran memorandum waived sanctions on Iranian oil exports for 60 days in exchange for non-nuclear commitments and full Hormuz reopening. This created immediate supply incentives for Tehran while exposing U.S. refiners to margin compression. Energy Secretary Wright confirmed normalized flows on June 21, yet downstream pricing inertia persists due to inventory drawdowns and contract structures.

A DOJ inquiry shifts scrutiny from administration policy to private actors, mirroring prior margin investigations in 2022. Primary records show no evidence of coordinated withholding; instead, refining capacity utilization and seasonal demand patterns explain the spread. Sustained Hormuz access and the temporary sanctions relief will test whether downstream prices track crude within four weeks.

Further declines hinge on Iranian export volumes clearing the 60-day window without reimposition of sanctions. Refiners face asymmetric pressure: lower input costs versus fixed retail contracts and regulatory exposure.