IRGC Mines Create Persistent Chokepoints in Hormuz, Delaying Oil Flow Normalization for Months

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical operational bottleneck for global oil supplies, with IRGC-laid naval mines forcing commercial vessels into narrow, monitored corridors and preventing a swift return to pre-conflict traffic volumes. Japan's NYK Line CEO Takaya Soga warned in a Financial Times interview that safe navigation routes are 'extremely limited' and 'very narrow,' with volumes likely to stay suppressed for months despite the interim US-Iran peace deal. This aligns with IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez's statements confirming approximately 80 mines concentrated in the central separation scheme, necessitating demining operations that could extend up to 30 days or more under the agreement terms. Shipping data shows tanker transits resuming gradually, with peaks around 57-70 vessels on certain days, but these figures understate activity as many operate without transponders or via Omani-side routes. IRGC directives require prior coordination for any transit and prohibit unauthorized paths, echoing broader patterns of mine-laying and vessel interdiction during the 2026 crisis. These constraints highlight how even limited minefields can create asymmetric choke points affecting 20% of global oil transit, with downstream effects on tanker rates, crew safety, and regional logistics extending into Iraq and neighboring states.