Larry McDonald's observation of 2020-style technical warnings in tech valuations aligns with patterns seen after prior Fed tightening cycles, yet primary FOMC minutes from December 2020 reveal explicit committee concerns over sector concentration that current coverage underplays. Cross-referencing those transcripts with Census Bureau trade data on semiconductor and rare-earth imports shows how U.S.-China tariff escalations since 2018 have structurally elevated input costs for hyperscalers, an angle absent from the MarketWatch piece. IMF World Economic Outlook chapters on commodity terms-of-trade further document that hard-asset outperformance during 2022-2023 coincided with documented energy-security reallocations by European and Asian central banks, not merely domestic rotation narratives. Multiple policy pathways exist: sustained higher-for-longer rates could compress growth multiples while simultaneously supporting commodity producers via fiscal defense spending; conversely, any coordinated de-escalation in export controls might restore tech relative performance. Primary documents therefore frame the inflection as contingent on verifiable shifts in both monetary guidance and bilateral trade statistics rather than isolated equity signals.