Super El Niño Risks Widening India's Coal Dependence Amid Renewable Shortfalls

A new analysis from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) warns that an emerging strong El Niño event could strain India's power system more than any other country's, potentially driving an additional 17.7 TWh of fossil fuel generation—primarily coal—between July 2026 and June 2027. Higher temperatures are projected to boost cooling demand by around 10 TWh, while reduced monsoon rainfall and weaker winds could cut hydropower output by 2.9 TWh and wind generation by 4.9 TWh, creating a generation gap of nearly 18 TWh that coal plants are likely to fill. This would add an estimated 17 million tonnes of CO2 emissions, with a severe scenario pushing fossil generation up by nearly 24 TWh.

India's coal-fired power already accounts for about 60% of electricity, and the country remains the world's second-largest coal user after China despite rapid renewable capacity growth. CREA notes that the gap is expected to be bridged mainly by coal, underscoring how climate extremes can temporarily override decarbonization timelines. Government advisors have previously emphasized coal's role as a reliable baseload for at least two decades to avoid blackouts during heatwaves.

Broader coverage in outlets like Bloomberg, Down To Earth, Economic Times, and The Hindu highlights the same CREA findings, connecting them to India's ongoing coal capacity additions and the challenges of integrating variable renewables under volatile weather. This scenario exposes a recurring tension: even as clean energy expands, extreme climate events tied to phenomena like El Niño can accelerate short-term fossil fuel use, complicating global narratives around steady progress toward net-zero pathways.