Tungsten Supply Crunch Intensifies as UK Backs Domestic Mine and US-China Trade Barriers Tighten Ahead of 2027 Defense Deadlines

Western efforts to secure tungsten supplies for defense and industry are accelerating amid documented shortages and geopolitical frictions. The UK government’s National Wealth Fund announced a £71 million investment in August 2026 to restart the Hemerdon tungsten and tin mine in Devon, securing rights to up to 50% of future output for British use.[1][2] This aligns with broader rearmament needs, as tungsten is critical for armor-piercing munitions, aerospace components, and electronics.

China’s dominance—producing roughly 79% of global mined tungsten in 2025—has created acute raw material constraints outside its borders. Western APT prices hover near $3,000/mtu WO3 while Chinese domestic levels remain far lower, deterring imports and tightening supply.[3][4] On August 5, 2026, China sanctioned the Responsible Business Alliance (RBA) under its Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law, prohibiting cooperation with the group that oversees the Responsible Minerals Initiative (RMI) audits widely required by Western firms including Apple and Tesla.[5][6] This effectively erects a compliance firewall, as Chinese material often incorporates inputs from Myanmar and North Korea, raising doubts about alternative Chinese audit schemes.

US policy adds pressure: Pentagon rules bar Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and North Korean tungsten from defense contracts through 2026, with the restriction expanding upstream to mining and refining stages effective January 1, 2027.[7][8] The Department of Defense has responded with major investments, including a $450 million stake in US producer Elmet Group to build domestic capacity.[9] Historical precedents, such as failed Japanese and South Korean-funded projects in Australia and Canada, underscore risks of government-led initiatives without strong industry offtake commitments.

Analysts note persistent ex-China supply gaps projected into 2030 even with new projects, driven by China’s export controls and declining domestic output.[3]