US Revokes Iran Oil Waiver After Hormuz Ship Attacks, Brent Exceeds $76

US Central Command confirmed strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions linked to maritime attacks, while the Treasury Department simultaneously ended the sanctions waiver that had permitted Iranian crude sales to third parties. Brent rose 2.1 percent intraday; 10-year Australian and Japanese yields each increased 4-6 basis points as inflation expectations adjusted. New Zealand’s central bank lifted its policy rate 25 basis points as scheduled, citing imported energy costs.

The waiver revocation removes the last legal channel for Iranian exports outside China, which had absorbed roughly 1.1 million barrels per day under the prior arrangement. Iranian crude loadings through Hormuz fell 18 percent in the first week after the incidents according to vessel-tracking data. US action simultaneously raises the cost of any Iranian retaliation that further restricts tanker traffic.

Washington’s documented objective remains degradation of Iranian revenue streams that fund regional proxies; Tehran’s interest lies in preserving export volumes to offset fiscal deficits exceeding 8 percent of GDP. Both sides have signaled willingness to absorb short-term economic pain rather than concede on maritime security or nuclear thresholds.

Forward contracts now price a sustained $4-6 risk premium through September. Any further closure of the Strait or additional US designations on Chinese buyers would trigger an immediate retest of $82 Brent.