Goldman Sachs Data Shows Computer Science Enrollment Declining 1%+ as AI Displacement Risk Hits Majors Tied to Professional Services

The Goldman report constructs major-level AI risk by mapping ACS occupational shares for graduates aged 21-30 to occupation-specific displacement probabilities. Computer science feeds heavily into software and data roles with elevated automation exposure while health and education majors remain insulated due to physical and interpersonal task requirements. This metric reveals professional services pipelines as most vulnerable rather than broad STEM categories. Enrollment shifts emerged only in 2025-26 data, coinciding with documented post-ChatGPT softening in entry-level hiring. Students are redirecting toward lower-risk majors amid sustained student debt loads and weaker job growth in AI-exposed occupations, confirming incentive-driven adaptation without requiring policy intervention. Prior labor market patterns after previous automation waves show similar reallocation lags of two to three years before enrollment stabilizes. The current concentration of declines in dual high-risk and low-growth majors suggests accelerated adjustment relative to historical benchmarks. Forward indicators point to continued compression in business and computer-related majors through 2027 unless AI tooling creates offsetting demand for oversight roles within the same fields.