Hormuz Outbound Tanker Transits Fall 18 Percent After CENTCOM Strikes on Iranian Targets

CENTCOM confirmed strikes on multiple Iranian targets on 28 and 29 June in direct response to Iranian drone strikes on two commercial vessels. The Panama-flagged Kiku, carrying 2 million barrels, was hit at 0430 ET on 29 June. Iranian forces had previously struck the Ever Lovely on 27 June. Both incidents occurred inside or adjacent to the 21-mile-wide shipping lanes that carry roughly 21 percent of global oil trade.

Primary records show shipowners reduced AIS broadcasts and rerouted or delayed sailings immediately after the second strike. Inbound traffic fell from a weekly peak of 87 vessels to 71; outbound traffic declined from 92 to 76. No formal closure was declared, yet the observed reduction matches patterns seen after the 2019 tanker attacks when effective daily throughput dropped 12-15 percent for three weeks.

US interests center on maintaining freedom of navigation for Gulf crude exports while avoiding wider entanglement; Iranian interests focus on demonstrating capacity to raise insurance premia and force diplomatic concessions ahead of scheduled talks. The documented sequence—vessel attack, US kinetic response, Iranian retaliation, renewed ceasefire—reveals both sides calibrating below the threshold of sustained closure.

Market data indicate a $2.80 per barrel rise in Dubai crude front-month spreads within 48 hours. Sustained traffic below 75 vessels per direction through mid-July would add an estimated 400,000 barrels per day of effective supply friction, independent of any formal Iranian announcement.