RAND Wargame Quantifies US Ship Repair Deficit Against PLA Navy

The August 2025 wargame simulated four Pacific scenarios including missile strikes on destroyers defending Taiwan and the Philippines. Existing Navy battle damage repair processes assume peacetime standards and continental US yards, creating bottlenecks when ships require immediate patching near contested waters. China operates with proximity to its industrial base and the world's largest navy, enabling faster regeneration cycles.

Procurement records and maintenance reports reveal chronic US shipyard backlogs predating the exercise, with public data showing only four public yards capable of major surface combatant work. The study notes mobile repair teams and flyaway units remain undersized for fleet-wide attrition. This exposes a logistics asymmetry where US forces must transit damaged hulls thousands of miles while PLA vessels cycle through nearby facilities.

Allied coordination failures in the game stemmed from undefined access protocols and regulatory mismatches, not political refusal. Official Navy statements emphasize distributed maritime operations without addressing quantified repair throughput. Independent analysis of contract awards shows minimal funding for expeditionary repair infrastructure relative to new construction.

Next steps require congressional mandates for pre-positioned repair stocks and binding port agreements with Japan and Australia before 2027, or force regeneration timelines will collapse under sustained combat.