The reported U.S.-Iran agreement in principle to reopen the Strait of Hormuz represents a tactical pause rather than resolution, overlooking how post-conflict chokepoint dynamics historically amplify shipping premiums and downstream fuel volatility. While the NYT live updates frame this as diplomatic progress, they understate the intelligence patterns of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps naval harassment that persisted after similar 2019-2020 tensions, where tanker insurance costs spiked 300% within weeks. Drawing from EIA data on 21% of global oil transit through Hormuz and IEA's 2023 stress-test scenarios, any perceived instability could trigger futures market contango within 60-90 days, directly elevating U.S. gasoline by 15-25 cents per gallon amid already strained SPR reserves. The coverage misses secondary effects on LNG routes to Asia and the precedent of shadow fleet operations bypassing sanctions, which could sustain low-level disruptions even after formal reopening. Cross-referencing with CSIS reports on Gulf militarization reveals that U.S. Fifth Fleet presence remains stretched, creating windows for proxy escalation that prior agreements failed to deter.