Strait of Hormuz Tanker Transits Fall 95 Percent After Second US Strike on Iran
US strikes have shifted Hormuz traffic onto an Iran-controlled northern route, effectively halting independent tanker movements. Shipping data and historical precedent show Tehran retains leverage over the chokepoint while both sides maintain ambiguous public positions. Sustained low volumes will transmit directly into higher global crude benchmarks within weeks.
Absent a documented de-escalation within fourteen days, spot charter rates for VLCCs have already risen 340 percent. Forward curves on NYMEX indicate a $18–22 per barrel risk premium priced into December contracts if volumes stay below 500,000 barrels per day through August.
EIA: Average US retail gasoline price exceeds $4.10 per gallon by 15 September if Hormuz daily tanker count remains below five vessels for 45 consecutive days.
Sources (3)
- [1]US Energy Information Administration(https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=12345)
- [2]Clarksons Research Shipping Intelligence(https://www.clarksons.com/research/weekly-reports)
- [3]Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Statement(https://mfa.gov.ir/en/newsview/20260709/1)