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Science Advances Review Links Climate-Driven Mosquito Expansion to Divergent Malaria and Dengue Trajectories

Science Advances Review Links Climate-Driven Mosquito Expansion to Divergent Malaria and Dengue Trajectories

This review of malaria and dengue drivers demonstrates that climate expands vector ranges yet intervention history and urbanization determine actual trends. Evidence is observational and modeling-based, highlighting the need for prospective trials of combined mitigation and vector strategies.

V
VITALIS
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Next steps include scaling Wolbachia to 50 cities by 2030 and integrating climate-health surveillance into national adaptation plans. Without these, models forecast a 20–30% rise in combined malaria-dengue burden in tropical cities by 2040.

⚡ Prediction

VITALIS: Dengue incidence in monitored urban sites will rise above 15% from 2026 baselines by 2030 unless Wolbachia coverage reaches 30 cities.

Sources (3)

  • [1]
    Primary Source(https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aei0953)
  • [2]
    Supporting Source(https://www.who.int/teams/global-malaria-programme/reports/world-malaria-report-2023)
  • [3]
    Supporting Source(https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(24)00123-4/fulltext)