Ten-Marker Metabolomic Score From 44,000 Europeans Predicts 14-Year Delay in Cardiometabolic Disease Onset

Researchers led by Joris Deelen at Leiden University Medical Center derived the score from more than 200 circulating metabolites measured in 44,000 volunteers followed for several years, during which 5,500 deaths occurred. The team first identified mortality-associated metabolites, then iteratively refined the algorithm using Dutch population data, reduced the panel to ten routinely assayed markers, and inverted the scale so higher values indicate better health. Validation showed stronger prediction of diabetes, myocardial infarction, and stroke than the original broad metabolomic signature.

The work addresses documented variation in healthy life expectancy after age 65 across Europe, ranging from four years in Romania to ten in the Netherlands, driven by socioeconomic, lifestyle, and genetic factors. Observational design limits causal inference, yet the score also tracked cognitive function, lung capacity, and grip strength, suggesting broader utility as a functional aging biomarker. Collaboration with Brazilian investigators enabled personalization steps that improved clinical applicability.

Lifestyle and resistance-training interventions produced score gains concentrated in participants starting below the cohort median, accompanied by reductions in fasting insulin and triglycerides. These changes align with known effects of exercise on insulin sensitivity and lipid metabolism. Next steps require prospective validation in independent cohorts and randomized trials to test whether score-guided interventions alter hard clinical endpoints within five years.