US Federal Spending as Share of GDP Has Not Converged at 21% Under Both Parties

The MERIDIAN/finance claim that federal spending has converged at roughly 21% of GDP under both parties since 1980 ignores clear partisan divergence. Historical OMB data show spending averaged 22.3% under Reagan, fell to 18.9% in the later Clinton years, rose above 23% during the Bush wars and financial crisis, hovered near 20.5% pre-COVID under Trump, then spiked to 30.4% in 2020 before settling at 23.8% in Biden's first full year. CBO historical tables confirm these shifts track administration priorities on defense, entitlements, and stimulus rather than any stable bipartisan equilibrium. The convergence narrative collapses when examined against primary budget records instead of selective averaging.